Advisory Type: Large Scale Irregular Migration
Information Source: Allmode
It can be seen that the number of migrants is rising exponentially. The two recent peaks allude to the driving factor behind migration into Europe via the Mediterranean: unrest in the Middle East and North Africa. The peak in 2011 occurred at the height of the “Arab Spring” in North Africa and the conflict in Syria (with the background of the ongoing violence in Iraq). However, the 2014 peak has, by far outstripped this historical peak. The descent of Libya into chaos, the ongoing, multi-faceted conflict in Syria/Iraq/Kurdistan and the activities of ISIS (Annex G) have all been contributory factors to driving people from their homes (“Push”).
A significant “pull” factor has been the success of previous migrants having already made the crossing, encouraging others to follow suit. Furthermore, the increasing capability of the people smugglers, now increasingly employing “economies of scale” with bigger ships and more convenient routes, mirrored by the decreasing capacity of (inter)national bodies and military forces to deter/disrupt internal migration, has increased both the motive-for and means-to migrate, while seeing a decrease in the ability to mitigate and manage it.
Migration continues to come at a high human cost. It is estimated that for every 1 body recovered there are another two who are never found or accounted for – the real cost will never be known but can be estimated at 1 in every 20 migrants (2014)7
To read the full Allmode Advisory report on Large Scale Irregular Migration go here